Ludogorets 3–1 Beroe: Result & Stats | First League

Ludogorets

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Beroe

5/4/2021

First League · Championship Round - 1Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Ludogorets65%

×Draw21%

Beroe14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudogoretsExpected goals in this matchBeroe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.75

Ludogorets

1.92

Beroe

0.75

Ludogorets creates 156% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 138 away

2.38

creates per match

0.93

0.57

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Ludogorets

2.38

Beroe

0.93

allows per match

Ludogorets

0.57

Beroe

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Beroe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw

86%

Ludogorets or Beroe

79%

Draw or Beroe

35%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+

39%

Beroe wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals

85%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

57%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

30%

Beroe 1+ goals

53%

Beroe 2+ goals

17%

Beroe 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

82%

Beroe (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.57 · 138 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.38 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.92

Beroe attack 0.93 + Ludogorets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ludogorets scores more

65%

level

21%

Beroe scores more

14%

Ludogorets at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff