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Ludesch vs Bezau — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Ludesch
Ludesch
FT
3 – 1
Bezau
Bezau
10/31/2020Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 15Sportplatz SV Ludesch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ludesch45%
×Draw21%
Bezau33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludesch
2.02
Bezau
1.71

Ludesch creates 18% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 46 away

creates per match

Ludesch
1.58
Bezau
1.30

allows per match

Ludesch
2.11
Bezau
2.46

finishing

Ludesch+0.00on par
Bezau+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludesch ↓

Bezau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ludesch or draw
67%
Ludesch or Bezau
79%
Draw or Bezau
55%

Winning margin

Ludesch wins by 2+
26%
Bezau wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ludesch 1+ goals
87%
Ludesch 2+ goals
60%
Ludesch 3+ goals
33%
Bezau 1+ goals
82%
Bezau 2+ goals
51%
Bezau 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ludesch (draw refunded)
58%
Bezau (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludesch at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.11 · 73 matches

Bezau away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludesch attack 1.58 + Bezau defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.02

Bezau attack 1.30 + Ludesch defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ludesch scores more
45%
level
21%
Bezau scores more
33%

Ludesch at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ludesch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludesch vs Bezau

Ludesch beat Bezau 3-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Ludesch in Ludesch.