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Luckenwalde vs Lokomotive Leipzig — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

Luckenwalde
Luckenwalde
Preview
17:00
Lokomotive Leipzig
Lokomotive Leipzig
7/24/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 1
56%
Luckenwalde
model favours
56%20%24%

Luckenwalde and Lokomotive Leipzig have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
73%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Luckenwalde56%
×Draw20%
Lokomotive Leipzig24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luckenwalde
2.33
Lokomotive Leipzig
1.48

Luckenwalde creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Luckenwalde
2.40
Lokomotive Leipzig
0.75

allows per match

Luckenwalde
2.20
Lokomotive Leipzig
2.25

finishing

Luckenwalde+0.00on par
Lokomotive Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luckenwalde ↓

Lokomotive Leipzig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Luckenwalde or draw
76%
Luckenwalde or Lokomotive Leipzig
80%
Draw or Lokomotive Leipzig
44%

Winning margin

Luckenwalde wins by 2+
35%
Lokomotive Leipzig wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Luckenwalde 1+ goals
90%
Luckenwalde 2+ goals
67%
Luckenwalde 3+ goals
41%
Lokomotive Leipzig 1+ goals
77%
Lokomotive Leipzig 2+ goals
43%
Lokomotive Leipzig 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Luckenwalde (draw refunded)
70%
Lokomotive Leipzig (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luckenwalde at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Lokomotive Leipzig away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luckenwalde attack 2.40 + Lokomotive Leipzig defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.33

Lokomotive Leipzig attack 0.75 + Luckenwalde defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Luckenwalde scores more
56%
level
20%
Lokomotive Leipzig scores more
24%

Luckenwalde at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Luckenwalde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Luckenwalde
DDLD
Leipzig
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Luckenwalde face Lokomotive Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost returns with Luckenwalde hosting Lokomotive Leipzig. Match starts July 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.