Luckenwalde vs Greifswalder FC

Luckenwalde

Preview

12:00

Greifswalder FC

4/4/2027

Regionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 27

Big match

44%

Luckenwalde

model favours

44%22%34%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

69%

over 2.5 goals

69%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Luckenwalde44%

×Draw22%

Greifswalder FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuckenwaldeExpected goals in this matchGreifswalder FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.66

Luckenwalde

1.90

Greifswalder FC

1.66

Luckenwalde creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 33 away

2.40

creates per match

1.12

2.20

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Luckenwalde

2.40

Greifswalder FC

1.12

allows per match

Luckenwalde

2.20

Greifswalder FC

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luckenwalde+0.00on par

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luckenwalde ↓

Greifswalder FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Luckenwalde or draw

66%

Luckenwalde or Greifswalder FC

78%

Draw or Greifswalder FC

56%

Winning margin

Luckenwalde wins by 2+

24%

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Luckenwalde 1+ goals

85%

Luckenwalde 2+ goals

56%

Luckenwalde 3+ goals

29%

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals

81%

Greifswalder FC 2+ goals

49%

Greifswalder FC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Luckenwalde (draw refunded)

56%

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luckenwalde at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luckenwalde attack 2.40 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.90

Greifswalder FC attack 1.12 + Luckenwalde defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Luckenwalde scores more

44%

level

22%

Greifswalder FC scores more

34%

Luckenwalde at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Luckenwalde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings
Luckenwalde sit 13, Greifswalder FC 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Luckenwalde

DDLD

FC

DLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff