Lubumbashi Sport 0–1 Vita Club: Result & Stats

Lubumbashi Sport

FT

0 – 1

Vita Club

11/16/2019

Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Lubumbashi Sport25%

×Draw29%

Vita Club46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lubumbashi SportExpected goals in this matchVita Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.25

Lubumbashi Sport

0.83

Vita Club

1.25

Vita Club creates 51% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 93 away

0.90

creates per match

1.33

1.18

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Lubumbashi Sport

0.90

Vita Club

1.33

allows per match

Lubumbashi Sport

1.18

Vita Club

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Vita Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lubumbashi Sport ↓

Vita Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lubumbashi Sport or draw

54%

Lubumbashi Sport or Vita Club

71%

Draw or Vita Club

75%

Winning margin

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+

8%

Vita Club wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals

56%

Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals

20%

Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals

5%

Vita Club 1+ goals

71%

Vita Club 2+ goals

36%

Vita Club 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)

35%

Vita Club (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lubumbashi Sport at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Vita Club away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.76 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.90 + Vita Club defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Vita Club attack 1.33 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lubumbashi Sport scores more

25%

level

29%

Vita Club scores more

46%

Vita Club at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vita Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff