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Lubumbashi Sport vs TP Mazembe — Ligue 1 2019

Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
FT
1 – 3
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
2/17/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Lubumbashi Sport19%
×Draw28%
TP Mazembe53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lubumbashi Sport
0.72
TP Mazembe
1.40

TP Mazembe creates 94% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 97 away

creates per match

Lubumbashi Sport
0.90
TP Mazembe
1.61

allows per match

Lubumbashi Sport
1.18
TP Mazembe
0.53

finishing

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lubumbashi Sport ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lubumbashi Sport or draw
47%
Lubumbashi Sport or TP Mazembe
72%
Draw or TP Mazembe
81%

Winning margin

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
5%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
51%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
16%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
4%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
75%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
41%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
27%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lubumbashi Sport at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.90 + TP Mazembe defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.72

TP Mazembe attack 1.61 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lubumbashi Sport scores more
19%
level
28%
TP Mazembe scores more
53%

TP Mazembe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lubumbashi Sport vs TP Mazembe

TP Mazembe beat Lubumbashi Sport 3-1 in Ligue 1 on February 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.