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Lubumbashi Sport vs Don Bosco — Ligue 1 2019

Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
FT
1 – 1
Don Bosco
Don Bosco
2/12/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Lubumbashi Sport35%
×Draw30%
Don Bosco34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lubumbashi Sport
1.03
Don Bosco
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 96 away

creates per match

Lubumbashi Sport
0.90
Don Bosco
0.85

allows per match

Lubumbashi Sport
1.18
Don Bosco
1.16

finishing

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par
Don Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lubumbashi Sport ↓

Don Bosco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lubumbashi Sport or draw
66%
Lubumbashi Sport or Don Bosco
70%
Draw or Don Bosco
65%

Winning margin

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
14%
Don Bosco wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
64%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
28%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
9%
Don Bosco 1+ goals
64%
Don Bosco 2+ goals
27%
Don Bosco 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
51%
Don Bosco (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lubumbashi Sport at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Don Bosco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.90 + Don Bosco defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Don Bosco attack 0.85 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Lubumbashi Sport scores more
35%
level
30%
Don Bosco scores more
34%

Lubumbashi Sport at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Lubumbashi Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lubumbashi Sport vs Don Bosco

Lubumbashi Sport and Don Bosco drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on February 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba in Lubumbashi.