Lubumbashi Sport 0–2 Dauphins Noirs: Result & Stats

Lubumbashi Sport

FT

0 – 2

Dauphins Noirs

12/22/2020

Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Lubumbashi Sport39%

×Draw30%

Dauphins Noirs31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lubumbashi SportExpected goals in this matchDauphins Noirs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.98

Lubumbashi Sport

1.13

Dauphins Noirs

0.98

Lubumbashi Sport creates 15% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 77 away

0.90

creates per match

0.78

1.18

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Lubumbashi Sport

0.90

Dauphins Noirs

0.78

allows per match

Lubumbashi Sport

1.18

Dauphins Noirs

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lubumbashi Sport ↓

Dauphins Noirs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lubumbashi Sport or draw

69%

Lubumbashi Sport or Dauphins Noirs

70%

Draw or Dauphins Noirs

61%

Winning margin

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+

16%

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals

68%

Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals

31%

Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals

11%

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals

62%

Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals

26%

Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)

55%

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lubumbashi Sport at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Dauphins Noirs away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.36 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.90 + Dauphins Noirs defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dauphins Noirs attack 0.78 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lubumbashi Sport scores more

39%

level

30%

Dauphins Noirs scores more

31%

Lubumbashi Sport at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lubumbashi Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff