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Luarca vs Tuilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Luarca
Luarca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tuilla
Tuilla
12/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Estadio La Veigona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Luarca37%
×Draw27%
Tuilla36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luarca
1.29
Tuilla
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 110 away

creates per match

Luarca
1.12
Tuilla
1.17

allows per match

Luarca
1.39
Tuilla
1.45

finishing

Luarca+0.00on par
Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luarca ↓

Tuilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Luarca or draw
64%
Luarca or Tuilla
73%
Draw or Tuilla
63%

Winning margin

Luarca wins by 2+
16%
Tuilla wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Luarca 1+ goals
72%
Luarca 2+ goals
37%
Luarca 3+ goals
14%
Tuilla 1+ goals
72%
Tuilla 2+ goals
37%
Tuilla 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Luarca (draw refunded)
50%
Tuilla (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luarca at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luarca attack 1.12 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tuilla attack 1.17 + Luarca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Luarca scores more
37%
level
27%
Tuilla scores more
36%

Luarca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Luarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Luarca 2 – 1 Tuilla

Luarca beat Tuilla 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Veigona in Luarca.