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Lozo vs US Oyem — Championnat D1 2022

Lozo
Lozo
FT
0 – 1
US Oyem
US Oyem
11/5/2022Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 2Stade Mbeba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lozo42%
×Draw29%
US Oyem29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lozo
1.24
US Oyem
0.97

Lozo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lozo
0.84
US Oyem
0.91

allows per match

Lozo
1.03
US Oyem
1.64

finishing

Lozo+0.00on par
US Oyem+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lozo ↓

US Oyem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lozo or draw
71%
Lozo or US Oyem
71%
Draw or US Oyem
58%

Winning margin

Lozo wins by 2+
19%
US Oyem wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lozo 1+ goals
71%
Lozo 2+ goals
35%
Lozo 3+ goals
13%
US Oyem 1+ goals
62%
US Oyem 2+ goals
25%
US Oyem 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lozo (draw refunded)
59%
US Oyem (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lozo at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

US Oyem away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lozo attack 0.84 + US Oyem defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.24

US Oyem attack 0.91 + Lozo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lozo scores more
42%
level
29%
US Oyem scores more
29%

Lozo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lozo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lozo vs US Oyem

US Oyem beat Lozo 1-0 in Championnat D1 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Mbeba in Lastoursville.