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Lovćen vs Internacional Podgorica — Second League 2019

Lovćen
Lovćen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Internacional Podgorica
Internacional Podgorica
3/20/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Trening kamp FSCG Stari Aerodrom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Lovćen48%
×Draw25%
Internacional Podgorica27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lovćen
1.59
Internacional Podgorica
1.13

Lovćen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 36 away

creates per match

Lovćen
1.10
Internacional Podgorica
0.86

allows per match

Lovćen
1.39
Internacional Podgorica
2.08

finishing

Lovćen+0.00on par
Internacional Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lovćen ↓

Internacional Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lovćen or draw
73%
Lovćen or Internacional Podgorica
75%
Draw or Internacional Podgorica
52%

Winning margin

Lovćen wins by 2+
25%
Internacional Podgorica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lovćen 1+ goals
80%
Lovćen 2+ goals
47%
Lovćen 3+ goals
21%
Internacional Podgorica 1+ goals
68%
Internacional Podgorica 2+ goals
31%
Internacional Podgorica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lovćen (draw refunded)
64%
Internacional Podgorica (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lovćen at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

Internacional Podgorica away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lovćen attack 1.10 + Internacional Podgorica defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.59

Internacional Podgorica attack 0.86 + Lovćen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lovćen scores more
48%
level
25%
Internacional Podgorica scores more
27%

Lovćen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lovćen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Lovćen 1–1 Internacional Podgorica

Lovćen and Internacional Podgorica drew 1-1 in Second League on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Trening kamp FSCG Stari Aerodrom in Podgorica.