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Lovćen vs Igalo — Second League 2019

Lovćen
Lovćen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Igalo
Igalo
11/18/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Trening kamp FSCG Stari Aerodrom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Lovćen35%
×Draw28%
Igalo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lovćen
1.17
Igalo
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 105 away

creates per match

Lovćen
1.10
Igalo
1.01

allows per match

Lovćen
1.39
Igalo
1.23

finishing

Lovćen+0.00on par
Igalo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lovćen ↓

Igalo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lovćen or draw
63%
Lovćen or Igalo
72%
Draw or Igalo
65%

Winning margin

Lovćen wins by 2+
15%
Igalo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lovćen 1+ goals
69%
Lovćen 2+ goals
33%
Lovćen 3+ goals
11%
Igalo 1+ goals
70%
Igalo 2+ goals
34%
Igalo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lovćen (draw refunded)
49%
Igalo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lovćen at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

Igalo away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.23 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lovćen attack 1.10 + Igalo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Igalo attack 1.01 + Lovćen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lovćen scores more
35%
level
28%
Igalo scores more
37%

Igalo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Igalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lovćen vs Igalo

Lovćen and Igalo drew 2-2 in Second League on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Trening kamp FSCG Stari Aerodrom in Podgorica.