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Louisville City vs Saint Louis — US Open Cup 2018

Louisville City
Louisville City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
5/23/2018US Open CupUS Open Cup · 3rd RoundMark & Cindy Lynn Soccer Stadium (Louisville, Kentucky)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Louisville City56%
×Draw27%
Saint Louis17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisville City
1.46
Saint Louis
0.66

Louisville City creates 121% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

creates per match

Louisville City
1.93
Saint Louis
0.67

allows per match

Louisville City
0.64
Saint Louis
1.00

finishing

Louisville City+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Louisville City or draw
83%
Louisville City or Saint Louis
73%
Draw or Saint Louis
44%

Winning margin

Louisville City wins by 2+
29%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Louisville City 1+ goals
77%
Louisville City 2+ goals
43%
Louisville City 3+ goals
18%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
48%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
14%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Louisville City (draw refunded)
77%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City attack 1.93 + Saint Louis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Saint Louis attack 0.67 + Louisville City defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Louisville City scores more
56%
level
27%
Saint Louis scores more
17%

Louisville City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

US Open Cup: Louisville City 1–0 Saint Louis

Louisville City beat Saint Louis 1-0 in US Open Cup on May 23, 2018.

The match was played at Mark & Cindy Lynn Soccer Stadium (Louisville, Kentucky).