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Louisville City II vs South Bend Lions — USL League Two 2026

Louisville City II
Louisville City II
PST
23:00
South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
6/5/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 21CCSA - Woehrle Youth Athletic Complex (Jeffersonville, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Louisville City II62%
×Draw20%
South Bend Lions18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisville City II
2.16
South Bend Lions
1.08

Louisville City II creates 100% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 28 away

creates per match

Louisville City II
1.67
South Bend Lions
1.50

allows per match

Louisville City II
0.67
South Bend Lions
2.64

finishing

Louisville City II+0.00on par
South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City II ↓

South Bend Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Louisville City II or draw
82%
Louisville City II or South Bend Lions
80%
Draw or South Bend Lions
38%

Winning margin

Louisville City II wins by 2+
39%
South Bend Lions wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Louisville City II 1+ goals
88%
Louisville City II 2+ goals
63%
Louisville City II 3+ goals
36%
South Bend Lions 1+ goals
66%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
29%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Louisville City II (draw refunded)
77%
South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

South Bend Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City II attack 1.67 + South Bend Lions defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.16

South Bend Lions attack 1.50 + Louisville City II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Louisville City II scores more
62%
level
20%
South Bend Lions scores more
18%

Louisville City II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Louisville City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Louisville City II vs South Bend Lions — Match Preview

Louisville City II face South Bend Lions on June 5, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Louisville City II host South Bend Lions at CCSA - Woehrle Youth Athletic Complex (Jeffersonville, Indiana).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.