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Louisville City II vs Grand Rapids — USL League Two 2018

Louisville City II
Louisville City II
PST
19:00
Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids
6/21/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 37CCSA - Woehrle Youth Athletic Complex (Jeffersonville, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Louisville City II31%
×Draw23%
Grand Rapids46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisville City II
1.40
Grand Rapids
1.76

Grand Rapids creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Louisville City II
1.67
Grand Rapids
2.86

allows per match

Louisville City II
0.67
Grand Rapids
1.14

finishing

Louisville City II+0.00on par
Grand Rapids+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City II ↓

Grand Rapids →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Louisville City II or draw
54%
Louisville City II or Grand Rapids
77%
Draw or Grand Rapids
69%

Winning margin

Louisville City II wins by 2+
14%
Grand Rapids wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Louisville City II 1+ goals
75%
Louisville City II 2+ goals
41%
Louisville City II 3+ goals
17%
Grand Rapids 1+ goals
83%
Grand Rapids 2+ goals
52%
Grand Rapids 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Louisville City II (draw refunded)
40%
Grand Rapids (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Grand Rapids away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City II attack 1.67 + Grand Rapids defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

Grand Rapids attack 2.86 + Louisville City II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Louisville City II scores more
31%
level
23%
Grand Rapids scores more
46%

Grand Rapids at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Grand Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Louisville City II face Grand Rapids (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Louisville City II hosting Grand Rapids. Match starts June 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Louisville City II host Grand Rapids at CCSA - Woehrle Youth Athletic Complex (Jeffersonville, Indiana).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.