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Louisville City II vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Louisville City II
Louisville City II
PST
23:00
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
5/27/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 13CCSA - Woehrle Youth Athletic Complex (Jeffersonville, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Louisville City II51%
×Draw27%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisville City II
1.44
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
0.83

Louisville City II creates 73% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Louisville City II
1.67
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.00

allows per match

Louisville City II
0.67
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.20

finishing

Louisville City II+0.00on par
Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City II ↓

Cincinnati Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Louisville City II or draw
78%
Louisville City II or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
73%
Draw or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
49%

Winning margin

Louisville City II wins by 2+
26%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Louisville City II 1+ goals
76%
Louisville City II 2+ goals
42%
Louisville City II 3+ goals
18%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
56%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
20%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Louisville City II (draw refunded)
70%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City II attack 1.67 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 1.00 + Louisville City II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Louisville City II scores more
51%
level
27%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
22%

Louisville City II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Louisville City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Louisville City II vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — Match Preview

Louisville City II face Cincinnati Dutch Lions on May 27, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Louisville City II host Cincinnati Dutch Lions at CCSA - Woehrle Youth Athletic Complex (Jeffersonville, Indiana).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.