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Loudoun United vs North Carolina — USL Championship 2026

Loudoun United
Loudoun United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
North Carolina
North Carolina
3/16/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 2Segra Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Loudoun United37%
×Draw25%
North Carolina38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loudoun United
1.46
North Carolina
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 74 away

creates per match

Loudoun United
1.52
North Carolina
1.24

allows per match

Loudoun United
1.70
North Carolina
1.39

finishing

Loudoun United+0.00on par
North Carolina+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loudoun United ↓

North Carolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Loudoun United or draw
62%
Loudoun United or North Carolina
75%
Draw or North Carolina
63%

Winning margin

Loudoun United wins by 2+
18%
North Carolina wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Loudoun United 1+ goals
77%
Loudoun United 2+ goals
43%
Loudoun United 3+ goals
18%
North Carolina 1+ goals
77%
North Carolina 2+ goals
43%
North Carolina 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Loudoun United (draw refunded)
50%
North Carolina (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loudoun United at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 111 matches

North Carolina away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loudoun United attack 1.52 + North Carolina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

North Carolina attack 1.24 + Loudoun United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Loudoun United scores more
37%
level
25%
North Carolina scores more
38%

North Carolina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "North Carolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loudoun United vs North Carolina

Loudoun United beat North Carolina 3-1 in USL Championship on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Segra Field in Leesburg, Virginia.