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Los Barrios vs Pozoblanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Los Barrios
Los Barrios
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio San Rafael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Barrios42%
×Draw28%
Pozoblanco30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Barrios
1.26
Pozoblanco
1.02

Los Barrios creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 109 away

creates per match

Los Barrios
0.93
Pozoblanco
0.94

allows per match

Los Barrios
1.09
Pozoblanco
1.58

finishing

Los Barrios+0.00on par
Pozoblanco+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Barrios ↓

Pozoblanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Los Barrios or draw
70%
Los Barrios or Pozoblanco
72%
Draw or Pozoblanco
58%

Winning margin

Los Barrios wins by 2+
19%
Pozoblanco wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Los Barrios 1+ goals
72%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
36%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
13%
Pozoblanco 1+ goals
64%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
27%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Los Barrios (draw refunded)
58%
Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Barrios at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

Pozoblanco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Barrios attack 0.93 + Pozoblanco defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.26

Pozoblanco attack 0.94 + Los Barrios defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Los Barrios scores more
42%
level
28%
Pozoblanco scores more
30%

Los Barrios at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Los Barrios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Los Barrios 0–0 Pozoblanco

Los Barrios and Pozoblanco drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio San Rafael in Los Barrios.