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Los Angeles FC II vs Ventura County — MLS Next Pro 2022

Los Angeles FC II
Los Angeles FC II
Preview
02:00
Ventura County
Ventura County
9/6/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageTitan Stadium
Big match
50%
Los Angeles FC II
model favours
50%22%28%

73% of Ventura County’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Los Angeles FC II50%
×Draw22%
Ventura County28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Angeles FC II
2.04
Ventura County
1.50

Los Angeles FC II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 37 away

creates per match

Los Angeles FC II
1.74
Ventura County
1.49

allows per match

Los Angeles FC II
1.51
Ventura County
2.35

finishing

Los Angeles FC II+0.00on par
Ventura County+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Angeles FC II ↓

Ventura County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Los Angeles FC II or draw
72%
Los Angeles FC II or Ventura County
78%
Draw or Ventura County
50%

Winning margin

Los Angeles FC II wins by 2+
29%
Ventura County wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Los Angeles FC II 1+ goals
87%
Los Angeles FC II 2+ goals
60%
Los Angeles FC II 3+ goals
33%
Ventura County 1+ goals
78%
Ventura County 2+ goals
44%
Ventura County 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Los Angeles FC II (draw refunded)
64%
Ventura County (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Angeles FC II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.51 · 43 matches

Ventura County away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Angeles FC II attack 1.74 + Ventura County defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.04

Ventura County attack 1.49 + Los Angeles FC II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Los Angeles FC II scores more
50%
level
22%
Ventura County scores more
28%

Los Angeles FC II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Los Angeles FC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 44% of Ventura County’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
DDWWL
County
LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Los Angeles FC II host Ventura County

September 6, 2026: Los Angeles FC II take on Ventura County in MLS Next Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Los Angeles FC II host Ventura County at Titan Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.