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Emmen vs Den Bosch — Eerste Divisie 2018

Emmen
Emmen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Den Bosch
Den Bosch
C. Peters 42'
H. Bos 31'
I. Kallon 22'
9/23/2016Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 8JenS Vesting

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Emmen45%
×Draw23%
Den Bosch32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.85
Den Bosch
1.53

Emmen creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.99
Den Bosch
1.41

allows per match

Emmen
1.66
Den Bosch
1.72

finishing

Emmen-0.32scores less
Den Bosch+0.32scores more

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Den Bosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
68%
Emmen or Den Bosch
77%
Draw or Den Bosch
55%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
25%
Den Bosch wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
84%
Emmen 2+ goals
55%
Emmen 3+ goals
28%
Den Bosch 1+ goals
78%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
45%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
58%
Den Bosch (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.66 · 6 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.72 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.99 + Den Bosch defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.85

Den Bosch attack 1.41 + Emmen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Emmen scores more
45%
level
23%
Den Bosch scores more
32%

Emmen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
N. Leijten← K. Heemskerk
22'
I. Kallon
31'
H. Bos
39'
D. Maatsen← B. Santermans
42'
C. Peters
52'
D. Schet← R. Regales
54'
Niek Vossebelt
65'
V. Maier← C. Peters
70'
N. Bakker← Josimar Lima
78'
J. Mannes← I. Kallon
90'
Dalian Maatsen

Eerste Divisie: Emmen 3–0 Den Bosch

Emmen beat Den Bosch 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on September 23, 2016.

Goals: I. Kallon (22'), H. Bos (31'), C. Peters (42').

The match was played at JenS Vesting in Emmen.