Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lorca Deportiva vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
1/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 19Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Lorca Deportiva51%
×Draw25%
UCAM Murcia II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lorca Deportiva
1.63
UCAM Murcia II
1.04

Lorca Deportiva creates 57% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 110 away

creates per match

Lorca Deportiva
2.11
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Lorca Deportiva
0.75
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca Deportiva ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lorca Deportiva or draw
76%
Lorca Deportiva or UCAM Murcia II
75%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
49%

Winning margin

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
27%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
80%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
48%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
22%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
65%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
28%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
68%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorca Deportiva at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.75 · 80 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorca Deportiva attack 2.11 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.63

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Lorca Deportiva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lorca Deportiva scores more
51%
level
25%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
24%

Lorca Deportiva at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca Deportiva 2–0 UCAM Murcia II

Lorca Deportiva beat UCAM Murcia II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.