Lorca Deportiva 3–2 Real Murcia II: Result & Stats

Lorca Deportiva

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Real Murcia II

11/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 10Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Lorca Deportiva52%

×Draw25%

Real Murcia II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lorca DeportivaExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.99

Lorca Deportiva

1.63

Real Murcia II

0.99

Lorca Deportiva creates 65% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 111 away

2.11

creates per match

1.24

0.75

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Lorca Deportiva

2.11

Real Murcia II

1.24

allows per match

Lorca Deportiva

0.75

Real Murcia II

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorca Deportiva ↓

Real Murcia II →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lorca Deportiva or draw

77%

Lorca Deportiva or Real Murcia II

75%

Draw or Real Murcia II

48%

Winning margin

Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+

28%

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

Team goals

Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals

80%

Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals

48%

Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals

22%

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

63%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

26%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)

69%

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lorca Deportiva at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.75 · 80 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lorca Deportiva attack 2.11 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.63

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Lorca Deportiva defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lorca Deportiva scores more

52%

level

25%

Real Murcia II scores more

23%

Lorca Deportiva at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca Deportiva 3–2 Real Murcia II

Lorca Deportiva beat Real Murcia II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco in Lorca.

Lorca Deportiva vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Lorca Deportiva 3–2 Real Murcia II