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Long Island Rough Riders vs New York RB III — USL League Two 2018

Long Island Rough Riders
Long Island Rough Riders
PST
23:30
New York RB III
New York RB III
6/6/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 23Howie Vogts Field (Bethpage, New York)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Long Island Rough Riders55%
×Draw24%
New York RB III21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Long Island Rough Riders
1.74
New York RB III
0.98

Long Island Rough Riders creates 78% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

creates per match

Long Island Rough Riders
2.41
New York RB III
1.07

allows per match

Long Island Rough Riders
0.89
New York RB III
1.07

finishing

Long Island Rough Riders+0.00on par
New York RB III+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long Island Rough Riders ↓

New York RB III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Long Island Rough Riders or draw
79%
Long Island Rough Riders or New York RB III
76%
Draw or New York RB III
45%

Winning margin

Long Island Rough Riders wins by 2+
31%
New York RB III wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Long Island Rough Riders 1+ goals
82%
Long Island Rough Riders 2+ goals
52%
Long Island Rough Riders 3+ goals
25%
New York RB III 1+ goals
62%
New York RB III 2+ goals
26%
New York RB III 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Long Island Rough Riders (draw refunded)
72%
New York RB III (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long Island Rough Riders at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.89 · 44 matches

New York RB III away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long Island Rough Riders attack 2.41 + New York RB III defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.74

New York RB III attack 1.07 + Long Island Rough Riders defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Long Island Rough Riders scores more
55%
level
24%
New York RB III scores more
21%

Long Island Rough Riders at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Long Island Rough Riders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Long Island Rough Riders vs New York RB III — Match Preview

Long Island Rough Riders face New York RB III on June 6, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Long Island Rough Riders host New York RB III at Howie Vogts Field (Bethpage, New York).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.