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Banbridge Town vs Lisburn Distillery — League #561 2026

Banbridge Town
Banbridge Town
FT
0 – 0
Lisburn Distillery
Lisburn Distillery
10/12/2019League #561League #561 · Round 5Crystal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Banbridge Town46%
×Draw22%
Lisburn Distillery32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banbridge Town
1.89
Lisburn Distillery
1.54

Banbridge Town creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Banbridge Town
1.78
Lisburn Distillery
1.79

allows per match

Banbridge Town
1.28
Lisburn Distillery
2.00

finishing

Banbridge Town+0.00on par
Lisburn Distillery+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banbridge Town ↓

Lisburn Distillery →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Banbridge Town or draw
68%
Banbridge Town or Lisburn Distillery
78%
Draw or Lisburn Distillery
54%

Winning margin

Banbridge Town wins by 2+
25%
Lisburn Distillery wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Banbridge Town 1+ goals
85%
Banbridge Town 2+ goals
56%
Banbridge Town 3+ goals
29%
Lisburn Distillery 1+ goals
79%
Lisburn Distillery 2+ goals
45%
Lisburn Distillery 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Banbridge Town (draw refunded)
59%
Lisburn Distillery (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banbridge Town at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Lisburn Distillery away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banbridge Town attack 1.78 + Lisburn Distillery defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Lisburn Distillery attack 1.79 + Banbridge Town defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Banbridge Town scores more
46%
level
22%
Lisburn Distillery scores more
32%

Banbridge Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Banbridge Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Banbridge Town 0–0 Lisburn Distillery

Banbridge Town and Lisburn Distillery drew 0-0 in League #561 on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Crystal Park in Banbridge.