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Parvoz vs Barki Tajik — Vysshaya Liga 2014

Parvoz
Parvoz
FT
3 – 0
Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
11/12/2014Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 17Stadion Furudgokh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Parvoz40%
×Draw26%
Barki Tajik34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parvoz
1.37
Barki Tajik
1.23

Parvoz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

creates per match

Parvoz
1.22
Barki Tajik
1.14

allows per match

Parvoz
1.33
Barki Tajik
1.52

finishing

Parvoz+0.00on par
Barki Tajik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parvoz ↓

Barki Tajik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Parvoz or draw
66%
Parvoz or Barki Tajik
74%
Draw or Barki Tajik
60%

Winning margin

Parvoz wins by 2+
19%
Barki Tajik wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Parvoz 1+ goals
75%
Parvoz 2+ goals
40%
Parvoz 3+ goals
16%
Barki Tajik 1+ goals
71%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
35%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Parvoz (draw refunded)
54%
Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parvoz at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Barki Tajik away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parvoz attack 1.22 + Barki Tajik defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.37

Barki Tajik attack 1.14 + Parvoz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Parvoz scores more
40%
level
26%
Barki Tajik scores more
34%

Parvoz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Parvoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Parvoz vs Barki Tajik

Parvoz beat Barki Tajik 3-0 in Vysshaya Liga on November 12, 2014.

The match was played at Stadion Furudgokh in Ghafurov.