Dollingstown 0–1 Armagh City: Result & Stats

Dollingstown

FT

0 – 1

Armagh City

12/22/2018

Premier Intermediate League · Round 8Planters Park (Lurgan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dollingstown46%

×Draw22%

Armagh City32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DollingstownExpected goals in this matchArmagh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.59

Dollingstown

1.94

Armagh City

1.59

Dollingstown creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

2.10

creates per match

1.48

1.71

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Dollingstown

2.10

Armagh City

1.48

allows per match

Dollingstown

1.71

Armagh City

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dollingstown+0.00on par

Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dollingstown ↓

Armagh City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Dollingstown or draw

68%

Dollingstown or Armagh City

78%

Draw or Armagh City

54%

Winning margin

Dollingstown wins by 2+

26%

Armagh City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dollingstown 1+ goals

86%

Dollingstown 2+ goals

58%

Dollingstown 3+ goals

30%

Armagh City 1+ goals

80%

Armagh City 2+ goals

47%

Armagh City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Dollingstown (draw refunded)

59%

Armagh City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dollingstown at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

Armagh City away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dollingstown attack 2.10 + Armagh City defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.94

Armagh City attack 1.48 + Dollingstown defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dollingstown scores more

46%

level

22%

Armagh City scores more

32%

Dollingstown at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dollingstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff