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Dollingstown vs Bangor — Premier Intermediate League 2019

Dollingstown
Dollingstown
FT
1 – 0
Bangor
Bangor
1/25/2020Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 12Planters Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dollingstown36%
×Draw24%
Bangor41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dollingstown
1.50
Bangor
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dollingstown
2.22
Bangor
1.62

allows per match

Dollingstown
1.61
Bangor
0.77

finishing

Dollingstown+0.00on par
Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dollingstown ↓

Bangor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dollingstown or draw
59%
Dollingstown or Bangor
76%
Draw or Bangor
64%

Winning margin

Dollingstown wins by 2+
17%
Bangor wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dollingstown 1+ goals
78%
Dollingstown 2+ goals
44%
Dollingstown 3+ goals
19%
Bangor 1+ goals
80%
Bangor 2+ goals
48%
Bangor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dollingstown (draw refunded)
47%
Bangor (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dollingstown at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Bangor away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dollingstown attack 2.22 + Bangor defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bangor attack 1.62 + Dollingstown defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dollingstown scores more
36%
level
24%
Bangor scores more
41%

Bangor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dollingstown vs Bangor

Dollingstown beat Bangor 1-0 in Premier Intermediate League on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at Planters Park in Lurgan.