Lokomotiv 1–3 Metalourg: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Metalourg

D. Turopov 39'

S. Gofurbekov 80', 77'

D. Temirov 18'

5/11/2021

Super League · Round 8Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Lokomotiv45%

×Draw27%

Metalourg29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchMetalourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.07

Lokomotiv

1.41

Metalourg

1.07

Lokomotiv creates 32% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 83 away

1.55

creates per match

1.02

1.13

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Lokomotiv

1.55

Metalourg

1.02

allows per match

Lokomotiv

1.13

Metalourg

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Metalourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

71%

Lokomotiv or Metalourg

73%

Draw or Metalourg

55%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

21%

Metalourg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

76%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

41%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

17%

Metalourg 1+ goals

66%

Metalourg 2+ goals

29%

Metalourg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

61%

Metalourg (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.55 + Metalourg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Metalourg attack 1.02 + Lokomotiv defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

45%

level

27%

Metalourg scores more

29%

Lokomotiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

37'

39'

52'

64'

A. Amonov← I. Rashidkhanov

71'

I. Nagaev← Z. Abdullayev

72'

J. Jumaboyev← S. Mukhammadiyev

72'

S. Kodirkulov← J. Sidikov

77'

S. Gofurbekov

78'

T. Abdukholikov

80'

S. Gofurbekov

81'

I. Chikrizov← S. Abdullaev

81'

I. Ganikhonov← D. Komilov

83'

K. Tadjiev← D. Temirov

88'

A. Lobanov

88'

D. Anvarov← S. Kutybaev

90+1'

D. Turopov

Lokomotiv

Metalourg

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Micael Sequeira

64'▲A. Amonov←▼I. Rashidkhanov

72'▲J. Jumaboyev←▼S. Mukhammadiyev

72'▲S. Kodirkulov←▼J. Sidikov

81'▲I. Chikrizov←▼S. Abdullaev

81'▲I. Ganikhonov←▼D. Komilov

Lokomotiv substitutes

AmonovJumaboyevKodirkulovChikrizovGanikhonovAbdujalilovBardancaIbragimovAlijanov

Manager: D. Abduraimov

71'▲I. Nagaev←▼Z. Abdullayev

83'▲K. Tadjiev←▼D. Temirov

88'▲D. Anvarov←▼S. Kutybaev

Metalourg substitutes

NagaevTadjievAnvarovTursunbaevNarzullaevQudratillayevChumak

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs Metalourg

Metalourg beat Lokomotiv 3-1 in Super League on May 11, 2021.

Goals: D. Temirov (18'), D. Turopov (39'), S. Gofurbekov (77', 80').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Tashkent.

Lokomotiv vs Metalourg — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs Metalourg