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Lokomotiv vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Premier League 2018

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
Preview
16:00
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
11/28/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16RZD Arena
Big match
56%
Lokomotiv
model favours
56%26%19%

Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lokomotiv56%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Makhachkala19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.55
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.77

Lokomotiv creates 101% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
1.69
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.52

allows per match

Lokomotiv
1.02
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.42

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
81%
Lokomotiv or Dinamo Makhachkala
74%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
44%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
29%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
79%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
46%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
20%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
54%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
18%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
75%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.69 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.52 + Lokomotiv defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
56%
level
26%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
19%

Lokomotiv at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Style contrast — Lokomotiv play Attack-heavy, Dinamo Makhachkala Direct / counter-attacking
  • Dinamo Makhachkala fall short of their xG (0.4 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Lokomotiv
Attack-heavy
Dinamo Makhachkala
Direct / counter-attacking
50%Possession44%
77%Pass accuracy68%
14.3Shots10.6
2.23xGBiggest gap0.88
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LokomotivDinamo Makhachkala

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Lokomotiv
3
Draws
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 80%
1–11–12–11–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Lokomotiv
WWWWW
Makhachkala
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lokomotiv host Dinamo Makhachkala

November 28, 2026: Lokomotiv take on Dinamo Makhachkala in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lokomotiv host Dinamo Makhachkala at RZD Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.