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Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna — First League 2018

Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
2/27/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia35%
×Draw28%
Cherno More Varna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.13
Cherno More Varna
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 136 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.15
Cherno More Varna
1.06

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.25
Cherno More Varna
1.10

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par
Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Cherno More Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw
63%
Lokomotiv Sofia or Cherno More Varna
72%
Draw or Cherno More Varna
65%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
14%
Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
68%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
31%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
11%
Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
69%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
32%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
49%
Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.15 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
35%
level
28%
Cherno More Varna scores more
37%

Cherno More Varna at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Cherno More Varna

Cherno More Varna beat Lokomotiv Sofia 3-0 in First League on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Sofia.