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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Chernolomets 1919 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
0 – 3
Chernolomets 1919
Chernolomets 1919
8/21/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 2Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse21%
×Draw23%
Chernolomets 191956%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
1.06
Chernolomets 1919
1.86

Chernolomets 1919 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 91 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Chernolomets 1919
1.63

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Chernolomets 1919
1.24

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Chernolomets 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Chernolomets 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
44%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Chernolomets 1919
77%
Draw or Chernolomets 1919
79%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
8%
Chernolomets 1919 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
29%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
9%
Chernolomets 1919 1+ goals
84%
Chernolomets 1919 2+ goals
55%
Chernolomets 1919 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
28%
Chernolomets 1919 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Chernolomets 1919 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Chernolomets 1919 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Chernolomets 1919 attack 1.63 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
21%
level
23%
Chernolomets 1919 scores more
56%

Chernolomets 1919 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chernolomets 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Ruse vs Chernolomets 1919

Chernolomets 1919 beat Lokomotiv Ruse 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Rousse.