Lokomotiv Moskva W 1–1 CSKA Moskva W

Lokomotiv Moskva W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CSKA Moskva W

9/23/2022

Supreme Division Women · Championship Round - 2Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva W40%

×Draw25%

CSKA Moskva W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv Moskva WExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moskva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.35

Lokomotiv Moskva W

1.46

CSKA Moskva W

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 75 away

2.46

creates per match

2.16

0.54

allows per match

0.47

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva W

2.46

CSKA Moskva W

2.16

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva W

0.54

CSKA Moskva W

0.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva W+0.00on par

CSKA Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva W ↓

CSKA Moskva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva W or draw

65%

Lokomotiv Moskva W or CSKA Moskva W

75%

Draw or CSKA Moskva W

60%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva W wins by 2+

19%

CSKA Moskva W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva W 1+ goals

77%

Lokomotiv Moskva W 2+ goals

43%

Lokomotiv Moskva W 3+ goals

18%

CSKA Moskva W 1+ goals

74%

CSKA Moskva W 2+ goals

39%

CSKA Moskva W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva W (draw refunded)

53%

CSKA Moskva W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva W at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.54 · 76 matches

CSKA Moskva W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.47 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva W attack 2.46 + CSKA Moskva W defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

CSKA Moskva W attack 2.16 + Lokomotiv Moskva W defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva W scores more

40%

level

25%

CSKA Moskva W scores more

35%

Lokomotiv Moskva W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff