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Lokomotiv Moskva U20 vs Krylya Sovetov U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
PST
00:00
Krylya Sovetov U20
Krylya Sovetov U20
4/11/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U2045%
×Draw23%
Krylya Sovetov U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
1.73
Krylya Sovetov U20
1.40

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
1.63
Krylya Sovetov U20
2.27

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
0.53
Krylya Sovetov U20
1.82

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 ↓

Krylya Sovetov U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or draw
69%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or Krylya Sovetov U20
77%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov U20
55%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+
24%
Krylya Sovetov U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals
82%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals
52%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals
25%
Krylya Sovetov U20 1+ goals
75%
Krylya Sovetov U20 2+ goals
41%
Krylya Sovetov U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
59%
Krylya Sovetov U20 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Krylya Sovetov U20 away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 1.63 + Krylya Sovetov U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Krylya Sovetov U20 attack 2.27 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more
45%
level
23%
Krylya Sovetov U20 scores more
31%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 face Krylya Sovetov U20 (Youth Championship)

Youth Championship returns with Lokomotiv Moskva U20 hosting Krylya Sovetov U20. Match starts April 11, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.