Lokomotiv Moscow 2–3 Akhmat Grozny: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Moscow

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Akhmat Grozny

G. Krychowiak 77'

A. Miranchuk 48' (pen)

B. Berisha 58'

A. Timofeev 45'

V. Iljin 3'

8/26/2020

Premier League · Round 5RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow50%

×Draw25%

Akhmat Grozny24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv MoscowExpected goals in this matchAkhmat Grozny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.02

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.58

Akhmat Grozny

1.02

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 55% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 121 away

1.69

creates per match

1.01

1.02

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.69

Akhmat Grozny

1.01

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.02

Akhmat Grozny

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

Akhmat Grozny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw

76%

Lokomotiv Moscow or Akhmat Grozny

75%

Draw or Akhmat Grozny

50%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+

26%

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals

79%

Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals

47%

Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals

21%

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

64%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

27%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)

67%

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.69 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.58

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more

50%

level

25%

Akhmat Grozny scores more

24%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Miranchuk

Lokomotiv Moscow · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

V. Iljin↳ M. Nenakhov

24'

25'

32'

34'

38'

39'

G. Melkadze← A. Ponce

45'

A. Timofeev↳ V. Iljin

46'

D. Kulikov← V. Ćorluka

46'

V. Lisakovich← R. Zhemaletdinov

48'

A. MiranchukPenalty

58'

Bernard Berisha

58'

E. Kharin← B. Berisha

58'

B. Berisha↳ G. Melkadze

59'

A. Shvets← Ismael Silva

59'

O. Roshi← M. Bogosavac

63'

63'

70'

71'

75'

D. Rybchinskiy← M. Lysov

77'

G. Krychowiak↳ V. Lisakovich

81'

O. Ivanov← G. Melkadze

90'

90'

90'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LokomotivAkhmat

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots10

3Corners2

11Fouls23

Shots

17Total Shots10

5On Target5

6Off Target3

6Blocked2

8Inside Box6

9Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

473Total Passes283

392Accurate Passes194

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls23

5Yellow Cards9

0Red Cards2

0Offsides2