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Lokomotiv Moscow vs Akhmat Grozny — Premier League 2018

Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
9/29/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow50%
×Draw25%
Akhmat Grozny24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.58
Akhmat Grozny
1.02

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 55% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 121 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.69
Akhmat Grozny
1.01

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.02
Akhmat Grozny
1.47

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par
Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

Akhmat Grozny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw
76%
Lokomotiv Moscow or Akhmat Grozny
75%
Draw or Akhmat Grozny
50%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
26%
Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
79%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
47%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
21%
Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
64%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
27%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
67%
Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.69 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.58

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
50%
level
25%
Akhmat Grozny scores more
24%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Lokomotiv Moscow 2–0 Akhmat Grozny

Lokomotiv Moscow beat Akhmat Grozny 2-0 in Premier League on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moscow.