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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Preview
15:00
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
4/10/2027Second LeagueSecond League · Round 27Lokomotiv stadium
Big match
41%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
model favours
41%29%30%

Yantra 2019 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa41%
×Draw29%
Yantra 201930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.21
Yantra 2019
0.99

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 100 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.21
Yantra 2019
0.95

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.04
Yantra 2019
1.21

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw
70%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Yantra 2019
71%
Draw or Yantra 2019
59%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
18%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
70%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
34%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
12%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
63%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
26%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
58%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.04 · 76 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 1.21 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
41%
level
29%
Yantra 2019 scores more
30%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Yantra 2019’s matches
  • 70% of Yantra 2019’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win just 18% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)
  • Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa sit 14, Yantra 2019 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Oryahovitsa
WLDWL
2019
DLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa face Yantra 2019 (Second League)

Second League returns with Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa hosting Yantra 2019. Match starts April 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa host Yantra 2019 at Lokomotiv stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.