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Lokomotiv Dryanovo vs Vihar Slavyanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
FT
2 – 0
Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
9/27/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 8Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo35%
×Draw26%
Vihar Slavyanovo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.31
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 95 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.33

allows per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.15

finishing

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par
Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Dryanovo ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or draw
61%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo or Vihar Slavyanovo
74%
Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo
65%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
15%
Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
73%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
38%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
14%
Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
76%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
41%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
47%
Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 1.48 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
35%
level
26%
Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
39%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Dryanovo vs Vihar Slavyanovo

Lokomotiv Dryanovo beat Vihar Slavyanovo 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Dryanovo.