Manchester United 3–0 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Manchester United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Liverpool

R. van Persie 71'

Mata 40'

W. Rooney 12'

12/14/2014

Premier League · Round 16Old Trafford (Manchester)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Manchester United46%

×Draw24%

Liverpool31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester UnitedExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.36

Manchester United

1.71

Liverpool

1.36

Manchester United creates 26% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 32 away

2.11

creates per match

1.61

1.11

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Manchester United

2.11

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

Manchester United

1.11

Liverpool

1.32

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester United-0.15scores less

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Manchester United or draw

69%

Manchester United or Liverpool

76%

Draw or Liverpool

54%

Winning margin

Manchester United wins by 2+

24%

Liverpool wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Manchester United 1+ goals

82%

Manchester United 2+ goals

51%

Manchester United 3+ goals

24%

Liverpool 1+ goals

74%

Liverpool 2+ goals

39%

Liverpool 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Manchester United (draw refunded)

60%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 25 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United attack 2.11 + Liverpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.71

Liverpool attack 1.61 + Manchester United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Manchester United scores more

46%

level

24%

Liverpool scores more

31%

Manchester United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

W. Rooney↳ A. Valencia

26'

K. Touré← G. Johnson

40'

Mata↳ R. van Persie

46'

M. Balotelli← A. Lallana

68'

L. Marković← Alberto Moreno

71'

Ander Herrera← J. Wilson

71'

R. van Persie↳ Mata

78'

R. Falcao← W. Rooney

89'

P. McNair← P. Jones

Manchester

Liverpool

1

Jones

2

▼

Johnson

37

Škrtel

6

Lovren

18

▼

Moreno

8

Gerrard

20

▼

24

14

10

31

1

6

4

▼

Jones

16

Carrick

25

A

Valencia

18

Young

31

Fellaini

20

⚽A

Persie

10

⚽

▼

Rooney

8

⚽A

Mata

49

▼

Wilson

71'▲Ander Herrera←▼J. Wilson

78'▲R. Falcao←▼W. Rooney

89'▲P. McNair←▼P. Jones

Manchester United substitutes

21Herrera9Falcao33McNair11Januzaj13Lindegaard24Fletcher42Blackett

26'▲K. Touré←▼G. Johnson

46'▲M. Balotelli←▼A. Lallana

68'▲L. Marković←▼Alberto Moreno

Liverpool substitutes

4Touré45Balotelli50Marković9Lambert21Leiva22Mignolet23Can