Lobos Upnfm 1–3 Vida: Result & Stats

Lobos Upnfm

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Vida

12/19/2020

Liga Nacional · Apertura - Preliminary Play-offsEstadio Tiburcio Carías Andino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Lobos Upnfm45%

×Draw25%

Vida30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lobos UpnfmExpected goals in this matchVida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.18

Lobos Upnfm

1.52

Vida

1.18

Lobos Upnfm creates 29% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 109 away

1.34

creates per match

1.15

1.21

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Lobos Upnfm

1.34

Vida

1.15

allows per match

Lobos Upnfm

1.21

Vida

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lobos Upnfm+0.00on par

Vida+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobos Upnfm ↓

Vida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lobos Upnfm or draw

70%

Lobos Upnfm or Vida

75%

Draw or Vida

55%

Winning margin

Lobos Upnfm wins by 2+

22%

Vida wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lobos Upnfm 1+ goals

78%

Lobos Upnfm 2+ goals

45%

Lobos Upnfm 3+ goals

20%

Vida 1+ goals

69%

Vida 2+ goals

33%

Vida 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lobos Upnfm (draw refunded)

60%

Vida (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobos Upnfm at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 149 matches

Vida away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobos Upnfm attack 1.34 + Vida defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vida attack 1.15 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lobos Upnfm scores more

45%

level

25%

Vida scores more

30%

Lobos Upnfm at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lobos Upnfm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff