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Lobos Upnfm vs Vida — Liga Nacional 2018

Lobos Upnfm
Lobos Upnfm
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vida
Vida
10/17/2019Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 14Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse (Choluteca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Lobos Upnfm45%
×Draw25%
Vida30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lobos Upnfm
1.52
Vida
1.18

Lobos Upnfm creates 29% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 109 away

creates per match

Lobos Upnfm
1.34
Vida
1.15

allows per match

Lobos Upnfm
1.21
Vida
1.70

finishing

Lobos Upnfm+0.00on par
Vida+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobos Upnfm ↓

Vida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lobos Upnfm or draw
70%
Lobos Upnfm or Vida
75%
Draw or Vida
55%

Winning margin

Lobos Upnfm wins by 2+
22%
Vida wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lobos Upnfm 1+ goals
78%
Lobos Upnfm 2+ goals
45%
Lobos Upnfm 3+ goals
20%
Vida 1+ goals
69%
Vida 2+ goals
33%
Vida 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lobos Upnfm (draw refunded)
60%
Vida (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobos Upnfm at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 149 matches

Vida away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobos Upnfm attack 1.34 + Vida defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vida attack 1.15 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lobos Upnfm scores more
45%
level
25%
Vida scores more
30%

Lobos Upnfm at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lobos Upnfm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Lobos Upnfm 2–2 Vida

Lobos Upnfm and Vida drew 2-2 in Liga Nacional on October 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse (Choluteca).