Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lobi Stars vs Enugu Rangers — NPFL 2019

Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Enugu Rangers
Enugu Rangers
1/18/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 2Jos International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Lobi Stars50%
×Draw29%
Enugu Rangers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lobi Stars
1.29
Enugu Rangers
0.73

Lobi Stars creates 77% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 130 away

creates per match

Lobi Stars
1.46
Enugu Rangers
0.71

allows per match

Lobi Stars
0.75
Enugu Rangers
1.13

finishing

Lobi Stars+0.00on par
Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobi Stars ↓

Enugu Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Lobi Stars or draw
79%
Lobi Stars or Enugu Rangers
71%
Draw or Enugu Rangers
50%

Winning margin

Lobi Stars wins by 2+
23%
Enugu Rangers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lobi Stars 1+ goals
72%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
37%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
14%
Enugu Rangers 1+ goals
52%
Enugu Rangers 2+ goals
17%
Enugu Rangers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
70%
Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobi Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.75 · 114 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobi Stars attack 1.46 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Lobi Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lobi Stars scores more
50%
level
29%
Enugu Rangers scores more
21%

Lobi Stars at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lobi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Lobi Stars 1–0 Enugu Rangers

Lobi Stars beat Enugu Rangers 1-0 in NPFL on January 18, 2023.

The match was played at Jos International Stadium in Jos.