LNZ Cherkasy 0–2 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

LNZ Cherkasy

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Oleksandria

Juan Alvina 73'

K. Kovalets 58'

8/12/2024

Premier League · Round 2Cherkasy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy42%

×Draw28%

Oleksandria30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LNZ CherkasyExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.05

LNZ Cherkasy

1.31

Oleksandria

1.05

LNZ Cherkasy creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

1.41

creates per match

1.23

0.87

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy

1.41

Oleksandria

1.23

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy

0.87

Oleksandria

1.22

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy-0.06on par

Oleksandria-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy or draw

70%

LNZ Cherkasy or Oleksandria

72%

Draw or Oleksandria

58%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+

19%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals

73%

LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals

38%

LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals

14%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

65%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

28%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)

59%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.87 · 17 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.41 + Oleksandria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Oleksandria attack 1.23 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

LNZ Cherkasy scores more

42%

level

28%

Oleksandria scores more

30%

LNZ Cherkasy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

K. Kovalets

Oleksandria · F

7.7

Match Events

58'

K. Kovalets↳ M. Kravchenko

61'

Juan Alvina

64'

G. Bessala← Eynel Soares

65'

Miguel Campos← M. Kravchenko

65'

Y. Smyrnyi← D. Shostak

73'

Juan Alvina↳ Y. Kopyna

75'

Hennadii Pasich

77'

D. Myshniov← K. Kovalets

77'

V. Pohorilyi← O. Filippov

79'

Yevhenii Smyrnyi

80'

N. Muravskyi← H. Pasich

80'

V. Naumets← D. Oliinyk

85'

A. Avahimian← Juan Alvina

87'

Ivan Kalyuzhnyi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LNZOleksandria

Overview

65%Possession35%

9Total Shots14

0.72Expected Goals (xG)1.32

3Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots14

3On Target6

4Off Target4

2Blocked4

7Inside Box10

2Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

498Total Passes317

429Accurate Passes238

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4

Match Recap: LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria

Oleksandria beat LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 in Premier League on August 12, 2024.

Goals: K. Kovalets (58'), Juan Alvina (73').

LNZ Cherkasy controlled possession (65%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Cherkasy Arena in Cherkasy.

LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria