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LNZ Cherkasy vs Kolos Kovalivka — Premier League 2019

LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka
11/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Cherkasy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

LNZ Cherkasy48%
×Draw25%
Kolos Kovalivka27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LNZ Cherkasy
1.59
Kolos Kovalivka
1.14

LNZ Cherkasy creates 39% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

LNZ Cherkasy
1.57
Kolos Kovalivka
1.44

allows per match

LNZ Cherkasy
0.83
Kolos Kovalivka
1.61

finishing

LNZ Cherkasy-0.01on par
Kolos Kovalivka-0.11scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LNZ Cherkasy ↓

Kolos Kovalivka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

LNZ Cherkasy or draw
73%
LNZ Cherkasy or Kolos Kovalivka
75%
Draw or Kolos Kovalivka
52%

Winning margin

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+
25%
Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals
80%
LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
47%
LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals
21%
Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals
68%
Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals
32%
Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)
64%
Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LNZ Cherkasy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 9 matches

Kolos Kovalivka away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.57 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.44 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

LNZ Cherkasy scores more
48%
level
25%
Kolos Kovalivka scores more
27%

LNZ Cherkasy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: LNZ Cherkasy 1–1 Kolos Kovalivka

LNZ Cherkasy and Kolos Kovalivka drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Cherkasy Arena in Cherkasy.