Llerenense 0–4 Miajadas: Result & Stats

Llerenense

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Miajadas

11/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 7Estadio Fernando Robina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Llerenense51%

×Draw27%

Miajadas22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlerenenseExpected goals in this matchMiajadas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.84

Llerenense

1.42

Miajadas

0.84

Llerenense creates 69% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 57 away

1.38

creates per match

0.77

0.91

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Llerenense

1.38

Miajadas

0.77

allows per match

Llerenense

0.91

Miajadas

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llerenense+0.00on par

Miajadas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llerenense ↓

Miajadas →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Llerenense or draw

78%

Llerenense or Miajadas

73%

Draw or Miajadas

49%

Winning margin

Llerenense wins by 2+

25%

Miajadas wins by 2+

Team goals

Llerenense 1+ goals

76%

Llerenense 2+ goals

41%

Llerenense 3+ goals

17%

Miajadas 1+ goals

57%

Miajadas 2+ goals

21%

Miajadas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Llerenense (draw refunded)

69%

Miajadas (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Llerenense at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Miajadas away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Llerenense attack 1.38 + Miajadas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Miajadas attack 0.77 + Llerenense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Llerenense scores more

51%

level

27%

Miajadas scores more

22%

Llerenense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Llerenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff