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Llerenense vs Arroyo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Llerenense
Llerenense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arroyo
Arroyo
12/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 9Estadio Fernando Robina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Llerenense48%
×Draw27%
Arroyo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llerenense
1.38
Arroyo
0.90

Llerenense creates 53% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 90 away

creates per match

Llerenense
1.38
Arroyo
0.89

allows per match

Llerenense
0.91
Arroyo
1.37

finishing

Llerenense+0.00on par
Arroyo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llerenense ↓

Arroyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Llerenense or draw
75%
Llerenense or Arroyo
73%
Draw or Arroyo
52%

Winning margin

Llerenense wins by 2+
23%
Arroyo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Llerenense 1+ goals
75%
Llerenense 2+ goals
40%
Llerenense 3+ goals
16%
Arroyo 1+ goals
59%
Arroyo 2+ goals
23%
Arroyo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Llerenense (draw refunded)
66%
Arroyo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llerenense at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 94 matches

Arroyo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llerenense attack 1.38 + Arroyo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Arroyo attack 0.89 + Llerenense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Llerenense scores more
48%
level
27%
Arroyo scores more
25%

Llerenense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Llerenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llerenense vs Arroyo

Llerenense and Arroyo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Robina in Llerena.