Llaneros W vs Atlético Nacional W

Llaneros W

Preview

20:00

Atlético Nacional W

8/9/2026

Liga Femenina · Round 16Estadio Bello Horizonte

44%

Atlético Nacional W

model favours

29%26%44%

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Llaneros W29%

×Draw26%

Atlético Nacional W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Llaneros WExpected goals in this matchAtlético Nacional W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.42

Llaneros W

1.10

Atlético Nacional W

1.42

Atlético Nacional W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 56 away

1.24

creates per match

1.32

1.52

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Llaneros W

1.24

Atlético Nacional W

1.32

allows per match

Llaneros W

1.52

Atlético Nacional W

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llaneros W+0.00on par

Atlético Nacional W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros W ↓

Atlético Nacional W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Llaneros W or draw

56%

Llaneros W or Atlético Nacional W

74%

Draw or Atlético Nacional W

71%

Winning margin

Llaneros W wins by 2+

11%

Atlético Nacional W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Llaneros W 1+ goals

67%

Llaneros W 2+ goals

30%

Llaneros W 3+ goals

10%

Atlético Nacional W 1+ goals

76%

Atlético Nacional W 2+ goals

41%

Atlético Nacional W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Llaneros W (draw refunded)

40%

Atlético Nacional W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros W at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Atlético Nacional W away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros W attack 1.24 + Atlético Nacional W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Atlético Nacional W attack 1.32 + Llaneros W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Llaneros W scores more

29%

level

26%

Atlético Nacional W scores more

44%

Atlético Nacional W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Nacional W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

LDLLW

W

WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff