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Llaneros vs Huila — Primera B 2018

Llaneros
Llaneros
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Huila
Huilaadvanced
12/13/2020Primera BPrimera B · Quadrangular Semi-finals - 5Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Llaneros45%
×Draw28%
Huila27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros
1.30
Huila
0.94

Llaneros creates 38% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 89 away

creates per match

Llaneros
1.45
Huila
1.01

allows per match

Llaneros
0.87
Huila
1.16

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw
73%
Llaneros or Huila
72%
Draw or Huila
55%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+
21%
Huila wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals
73%
Llaneros 2+ goals
37%
Llaneros 3+ goals
14%
Huila 1+ goals
61%
Huila 2+ goals
24%
Huila 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)
62%
Huila (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.87 · 134 matches

Huila away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.16 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.45 + Huila defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Huila attack 1.01 + Llaneros defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Llaneros scores more
45%
level
28%
Huila scores more
27%

Llaneros at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros vs Huila

Huila beat Llaneros 1-0 in Primera B on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte in Villavicencio.