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Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2018

Llaneros
Llaneros
Preview
01:15
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
9/21/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Bello Horizonte
38%
Atletico Nacional
model favours
32%30%38%

Atletico Nacional have won 3 of the last 3 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Llaneros32%
×Draw30%
Atletico Nacional38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros
1.01
Atletico Nacional
1.13

Atletico Nacional creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 195 away

creates per match

Llaneros
0.93
Atletico Nacional
1.22

allows per match

Llaneros
1.03
Atletico Nacional
1.08

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw
62%
Llaneros or Atletico Nacional
70%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
68%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+
12%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals
64%
Llaneros 2+ goals
27%
Llaneros 3+ goals
8%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
68%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
31%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)
46%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 195 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 0.93 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Atletico Nacional attack 1.22 + Llaneros defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Llaneros scores more
32%
level
30%
Atletico Nacional scores more
38%

Atletico Nacional at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Atletico Nacional score first in only 33% of matches
  • Llaneros sit 19, Atletico Nacional 7 in the table
  • Atletico Nacional outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Llaneros
Balanced
Atletico Nacional
Possession-dominant
48%Possession56%
79%Pass accuracy83%
10.8ShotsBiggest gap15.2
1.08xG1.49
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LlanerosAtletico Nacional

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

0
Llaneros
0
Draws
3
Atletico Nacional
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 33%
0–20–31–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Llaneros
WWLWL
Nacional
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Llaneros vs Atletico Nacional — Match Preview

Llaneros face Atletico Nacional on September 21, 2026 in this Primera A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Llaneros host Atletico Nacional at Estadio Bello Horizonte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.