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Llaneros de Guanare vs Zamora FC — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
Canc
20:00
Zamora FC
Zamora FC
3/15/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare39%
×Draw26%
Zamora FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.35
Zamora FC
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 136 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Zamora FC
1.03

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Zamora FC
1.34

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Zamora FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Zamora FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
65%
Llaneros de Guanare or Zamora FC
74%
Draw or Zamora FC
61%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
18%
Zamora FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
74%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
39%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
15%
Zamora FC 1+ goals
72%
Zamora FC 2+ goals
37%
Zamora FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
52%
Zamora FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Zamora FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Zamora FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Zamora FC attack 1.03 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
39%
level
26%
Zamora FC scores more
35%

Llaneros de Guanare at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Llaneros de Guanare host Zamora FC

March 15, 2020: Llaneros de Guanare take on Zamora FC in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.