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Llaneros de Guanare vs Real Frontera — Segunda División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
2 – 0
Real Frontera
Real Frontera
3/25/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 7Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare40%
×Draw25%
Real Frontera35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.50
Real Frontera
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 105 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
Real Frontera
1.29

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.48
Real Frontera
1.67

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Real Frontera+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Real Frontera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
65%
Llaneros de Guanare or Real Frontera
75%
Draw or Real Frontera
60%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
19%
Real Frontera wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
78%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
44%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
19%
Real Frontera 1+ goals
75%
Real Frontera 2+ goals
40%
Real Frontera 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
53%
Real Frontera (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Real Frontera away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.33 + Real Frontera defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Real Frontera attack 1.29 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
40%
level
25%
Real Frontera scores more
35%

Llaneros de Guanare at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros de Guanare vs Real Frontera

Llaneros de Guanare beat Real Frontera 2-0 in Segunda División on March 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).